The Silver Linings Of an Aging World

Photo-Illustration by TIME (Source Image: Natalia Schuchardt—Getty Images, Marco Bottigelli—Getty Images)Daren Acemoglu is an economist, author, and professor at MIT. Nov 7, 2026 12:00 PM UTCThe world is undergoing one of the biggest demographic transitions it has ever experienced. About two-thirds of humanity now lives in countries where fertility is too low for each generation to replace itself. The result is rapidly aging workforces in most of the world, and the population in parts of Europe is already shrinking.One way to measure aging is by looking at the old-age dependency ratio, a demographic indicator that captures the number of people in working age (15 to 64) relative to the number of elderly, retired people (64 and older). By 2035, for instance, Italy’s old-age dependency ratio will have risen from an already high 39% to 50%. Greece, Portugal, and Spain are close behind.A similar demographic shift is underway in Latin America, including in Cuba, Puerto Rico, Costa Rica, and Colombia. Just a few decades ago, these countries had much smaller elderly populations compared to Europe and thus had lower old-age dependency ratios. Now they are catching up with Europe on this mea...